With 17 days until the Nov. 3 midterm elections, millions of Americans have already cast ballots. Early-vote tallies and ballot-request data are drawing attention from analysts, though those who study the numbers say they offer limited insight into who will win.

What the numbers show so far

About 3.6 million Americans had voted early as of Oct. 13, 21 days before Election Day, according to a report published by Political.org. A national tracker cited in the same report counted 3,474,584 early votes, made up of roughly 2.8 million mail ballots and 695,300 in-person early votes.

The tracker also counted 51,546,379 mail ballots requested or sent. According to the report, that figure includes all registered voters in states that mail ballots to everyone, so it is not a measure of voter intent.

For comparison, the report cited the United States Elections Project as saying more than 12 million people had cast ballots by late October 2022. Because the 2026 figure was recorded earlier in the calendar, the two totals are not directly comparable.

Ballot requests by party

Some of the most-discussed early data concerns who has requested mail ballots. JournalArta, citing a CNN analysis published Oct. 1, reported that Democrats accounted for a larger share of ballot requests than at the same point in 2024 in several states:

  • Iowa: 67 percent, up from 54 percent
  • Pennsylvania: 66 percent, up from 62 percent
  • Maine: 57 percent, up from 53 percent
  • North Carolina: 42 percent, up from 36 percent

Political.org reported similar patterns in other states. In Virginia, localities that voted for Kamala Harris by more than 20 points in 2024 had reached 78 percent of their 2024 early-vote pace, compared with 61 percent in localities that voted for Donald Trump by 20 points. In Ohio, the Republican lead in the strongest Trump counties had narrowed to about 5 points, from about 30 points at the same time in 2024, according to the report.

JournalArta noted that, in every state it listed except Iowa, Democrats had performed better at this point in 2022 than they do now. It also said the 2024 and 2022 comparisons came from Catalist, a firm that works with Democrats, academics and nonprofit advocacy groups.

Why analysts urge caution

Both reports stressed the limits of early data. Ballots are secret, so officials and trackers can report who has voted, and in some states party registration, but not how people voted. Political.org wrote that party registration “shows who returned a ballot, not whom they chose.”

Early voters are also only a portion of the electorate. Political.org reported that analysts caution that “early ballots are a subset of the electorate,” and that Republicans in recent years have been more likely to vote in person early or on Election Day. JournalArta said early voting often favors older voters. As many as two-thirds of midterm votes are expected to arrive by mail or early voting, it reported.

Differences in state calendars add another complication. Political.org said early comparisons between states are partly affected by when each state begins voting. According to its citation of Ballotpedia, Arizona began early voting on Oct. 7, Georgia on Oct. 13 (with in-person advance voting through Oct. 30), and Washington on Oct. 16. Texas, Colorado and Alaska are scheduled to start on Oct. 19.

JournalArta wrote that the early pattern matches summer polling, special election results and primary turnout, which it said point to stronger Democratic motivation. It added that “the numbers do not predict the result” and described the data as a possible indicator of enthusiasm and mobilization rather than of outcomes.

A longer-term shift in how Americans vote

Political.org also placed the figures in historical context, citing the Center for Election Innovation and Research. Early voting options existed in 24 states in 2000 and 28 in 2008. By 2016 the number was 31 plus the District of Columbia, and by 2024 it was 47 states. The share of ballots cast early rose from 14 percent in 2000 to 40 percent in 2016, according to the report.

Because of that shift, the volume of early votes has become a regular feature of campaign coverage, though the data’s meaning is often contested between the parties’ supporters. Political.org reported that conservative commentators have argued early mail ballots skew Democratic and older, while liberal commentators have pointed to higher Democratic request shares as a sign of enthusiasm. It said most observers describe the early numbers as interesting but incomplete.

What is at stake

All House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the Nov. 3 ballot. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, according to Political.org, so Democrats would need to keep their current seats and gain four more to take control. The report named Georgia, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska among the Senate contests drawing attention.

What to watch next

Analysts quoted in the Political.org report include Anthony Salvanto, elections and surveys director at CBS News, and Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, who it said are weighing what the early numbers reveal. Further states open early voting in the coming days, and tallies will continue to change as more ballots are returned and processed.

Election officials in each state publish their own figures, and the numbers reported here reflect the dates cited by the named outlets rather than a current count. Final results will not be known until polls close and votes are counted after Nov. 3.

Sources: Political.org, JournalArta.