U.S. retailers are heading into the holiday season with forecasts pointing to solid growth, even as shoppers say they are watching their budgets. Deloitte projects total holiday retail sales of $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion for November 2026 through January 2027, an increase of 4.0% to 4.8% from the same period a year earlier.

The forecast in numbers

Deloitte, which published its forecast on September 10, said the projection compares with growth of 4.1% last holiday season, when sales totaled $1.63 trillion according to U.S. Census Bureau figures cited in the report. Those totals are seasonally adjusted and exclude automotive and gasoline sales.

E-commerce is expected to outpace the broader market. Deloitte projects online sales to grow 7.5% to 8.4%, reaching an estimated $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion. The comparison figure for last season was about $294 billion, after growth of 7.5%.

Income growth underpins the outlook

Akrur Barua, an economist at Deloitte Insights, said disposable personal income remains an important input to the forecast. Deloitte projects disposable income to grow 4.5% to 5.2% during the holiday season, and Barua described income growth as a strong predictor of retail and e-commerce sales. He also said consumers’ continuing use of digital tools to research, compare and buy should support online growth.

Value-seeking shoppers

Natalie Martini, vice chair and U.S. retail and consumer products leader at Deloitte, said consumers still want to make the holidays special for friends and family, but are making deliberate spending choices. Deloitte said value-seeking behavior is showing up across income levels, with shoppers switching brands and retailers and relying on promotions to manage spending. The firm said those habits are expected to shape how consumers shop this season.

The forecast is broadly in line with estimates from Bain and Company, according to retail trade coverage of the projections.

Why a bigger total does not mean easier budgets

A headline forecast measures total sales across the economy, not what any single household will spend. Growth of about 4% to 5% in nominal terms can also be influenced by prices. Because higher prices raise the dollar value of purchases, shoppers who buy the same items as last year may spend more without receiving more. Households facing elevated costs for housing, food and borrowing may therefore feel pressure even if retail totals rise.

Practical steps for household budgets

Consumer finance educators commonly suggest a few approaches for the months ahead. These are general ideas and not individualized advice:

  • Set a total spending cap early. Decide on an overall holiday budget before shopping begins, and divide it among gifts, travel, food and entertainment.
  • List recipients and amounts. A written list can limit impulse purchases and make it easier to track spending against the cap.
  • Compare prices across retailers. Deloitte’s findings suggest comparison shopping is widespread, and price-tracking tools and store apps are common ways to do it.
  • Be cautious with store credit and buy now, pay later plans. Delayed or installment payments can add up across several purchases, so it can help to confirm total monthly obligations before checkout.
  • Pay attention to return policies and shipping deadlines. Holiday windows differ by retailer and are often announced in the fall.
  • Plan for January. Credit card statements for holiday purchases arrive after the season, so setting aside cash to pay balances in full can limit interest charges.

What retailers are watching

Retail analysts say promotions, early sales events and free shipping offers are likely to remain central to the season as stores compete for cautious shoppers. The strength of online sales will also be closely watched, as will the extent to which consumers trade down to lower-priced brands. Deloitte’s report suggests that while demand for holiday gifting remains healthy, how and where consumers spend is shifting.

Forecasts are estimates and can change if economic conditions shift, including changes in employment, inflation and consumer confidence. Final results are typically reported in early 2027, when the Census Bureau releases data covering the holiday period.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice.

Sources: Deloitte, U.S. Census Bureau (as cited by Deloitte), Rapaport, RetailWire.